As a consequence of the Sept. 11 assaults, there shall be much less cruise capability within the North American market than beforehand estimated for 2002 by 2006, easing the aggressive market scenario which was already affected by the softening of the economic system.
The chapter of Renaissance Cruises, lay-ups of ships, and delayed deliveries of latest buildings have taken beds out of the market whereas future new capability is predicted to return on at a slower price and to be offset by much more withdrawals.
2001
The introduction of latest cruise capability this 12 months was already softened by final 12 months’s bankruptcies of Premier Cruises, Crown Cruise Line and Commodore Cruises.
As well as, Carnival Cruise Strains transferred the Tropicale to Costa Crociere, thus successfully taking her out of the North American market, whereas Renaissance’s demise took 10 extra ships out of the market.
Moreover, Delta Queen Coastal Voyages didn’t take supply of its second coastal vessel, suspending that to subsequent 12 months, whereas Royal Olympic Cruises didn’t but take supply of its second newbuilding.
Thus, the variety of ships will keep at 130 in 2001 in keeping with estimates by Cruise Business Information, whereas the berths will improve from 142,873 in 2000 to 155,031 in 2001, for an annual passenger capability of 8,022,465 by 12 months’s finish, up 6.4 p.c from 2000.
2002
Subsequent 12 months will profit from Holland America Line, Princess Cruises, and Royal Caribbean Worldwide transferring ships to Europe – to Costa Crociere, Seetours, P&O Cruises, and Island, respectively.
As well as are the lay-ups of the Silver Cloud, Track of Flower (partial lay-up), and the Pacific Princess (partial lay-up), which has additionally been offered and is predicted to go away the North American market after the 2002 Bermuda season.
Additional lay-ups and withdrawals are anticipated among the many weaker operators in addition to among the many bigger strains, which can select to section their older, much less environment friendly ships out of service.
Nevertheless, at this level, the North American cruise fleet is ready to develop to 137 ships in 2002, with 170,065 berths, and an annual passenger capability of 8,665,555, up 8.0 p.c from 2001. The precise development is predicted to be much less.
2003
Till additional capability changes are introduced, 2003 will see the fleet develop to 149 ships, with 193,863 berths, and annual passenger capability of 9,676,440, up 11.7 p.c from 2002.
It’s anticipated that the Norway will depart this market in 2003 and that extra withdrawals shall be introduced until market demand picks up dramatically. The withdrawals will offset the expansion price, bringing it down into single digits.
2004
As of now, seven new ships are scheduled to enter the North American market in 2004, whereas the Regal Princess goes to Seetours. Thus, the fleet is ready to develop to 155 ships with 208,367 berths, with an annual passenger capability of 10,313,640 passengers by 12 months’s finish 2004, up 6.6 p.c from 2003.
2005 and 2006
At this level, solely choices exist for ship deliveries in 2005 and 2006 and cruise strains are presently in discussions with yards to delay deliveries on contracts not but began.
Thus, 2005 and 2005 may even see deliveries of ships beforehand slated to enter service in 2003 and 2004 because the cruise strains search to decelerate the speed of latest capability.
For now, probably the most optimistic projection forecasts a North American fleet of 159 ships, with 216,337 berths and an annual passenger capability of 10,658,640 by 12 months’s finish 2006.
The upside is that that is a mean annual capability enlargement development price of lower than seven p.c, in comparison with the business’s common annual historic passenger development price of eight p.c.
Thus, by 12 months’s finish 2006, passengers must be standing in line to cruise, which will even enable the cruise strains to boost costs.
Perspective
Many analysts consider that the U.S. economic system had already slipped right into a recession earlier than September 11. A pick-up just isn’t anticipated till spring 2002, with renewed enlargement within the second half of 2002 and early 2003. However the outlook is simply too unsure to be extra particular, in keeping with many analysts.
The journey business, together with the cruise strains, is impacted not solely by the economic system but additionally by individuals’s issues about touring in mild of the assaults and the following threats on Americans all over the world.
When the economic system rebounds and when the American confidence in journey, particularly worldwide journey, returns, the cruise market will even be again on monitor.
After the 1991 Gulf Struggle, it took two years earlier than American passengers returned to Mediterranean cruises, stated one cruise line government.
Given the mix of a delicate economic system and the historical past of terrorism and struggle’s affect on journey, it might thus be 2003 and even 2004 earlier than it’s (cruise) “enterprise as common.”
