Cruising throughout hurricane season, the subject has been lined earlier than, proper right here as a matter of truth. So why revisit this matter? Most cruise strains have their very own meteorologists on employees to maintain ships out of hurt’s approach. True, however they’re on the cruise line’s payroll. In the present day, we’ve got detailed details about cruising throughout hurricane season from professionals not employed by cruise strains.
Why This Data Is Distinctive
Ted Palma is an authorized consulting meteorologist with over 40 years expertise working in consulting and the federal authorities who obtained his Masters in Meteorology from the Pennsylvania State College. Ted is an avid cruiser who we met on a cruise greater than a dozen years in the past. Mark A. Morris is an environmental engineer and geographic data system (GIS) analyst with 30 years of expertise.
Right here is the informative recommendation Ted & Mark have on the subject:
Are you contemplating reserving a cruise throughout hurricane season? For the Atlantic Basin (the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico) hurricane season runs from June via November. Whereas a storm can happen at any time throughout this season, the height season is from mid-August to late October. Cruise strains usually supply among the greatest offers of the yr throughout this time interval, particularly after Labor Day. Clearly, together with these price financial savings is the chance that your cruise could also be impacted by a tropical system.
Whereas there isn’t any assure that Mom Nature will cooperate along with your cruise plans, in a current examine we appeared again on the paths of historic tropical techniques to find out which embarkation ports, itineraries, in addition to which months will provide you with the most effective odds of a clean crusing.
Evaluation
By analyzing the storm paths of almost 2200 tropical techniques (Determine 1) over the previous 169 years, we estimated which embarkation cruise ports and which itineraries might reduce your possibilities of being impacted by a storm. It’s essential to remember that as soon as at sea, cruise strains will usually do their greatest to avoid potential bother spots. This may increasingly in some conditions end in lacking a port or changes to your itinerary.
Whereas every storm’s energy and dimension will differ, for our examine we assumed a “direct hit” as being inside 50 miles from the middle of a storm. Whereas impacts similar to excessive seas, wind and tropical squalls will be felt a lot farther than this distance, we estimated that if a storm have been inside 50 miles, important companies required for embarkation can be compromised, probably leading to a delay and or cancelation of the cruise.
Desk 1 and Determine 2 current a compilation of the variety of storms with a “direct hit” for every embarkation port. Desk 1 additionally exhibits the breakdown of storms through the peak months (August via October) of the tropical season.
Other than the cruise ports, Determine 2 additionally exhibits direct hits at 19-mile (30-kilometer) grid cells that cowl the Atlantic basin, with coloration coding used to symbolize the variety of storms inside 50 miles of every cell. Determine 3 depicts a broader view of the Atlantic basin damaged down into the grid cells.
Suggestions
An in depth examination of Desk 1 and Determine 2 counsel that crusing out of the Western Gulf ports (Galveston and New Orleans) throughout hurricane season will scale back your possibilities of a “direct hit” from a tropical system. As well as, a cruise from San Juan can even scale back your odds of a direct hit. If a Gulf or Puerto Rico port is just not an possibility, Port Canaveral provides the most effective odds to overlook a storm from a southeast port. Cruising from mid-atlantic and northeast ports will considerably scale back your odds as nicely.
After we study Determine 3, aside from a New England or Canadian Maritime cruise, it seems that a southern Caribbean itinerary (Lesser and Leeward Antilles) has the bottom odds of you lacking a port of name on account of a tropical system. A western itinerary additionally has a barely decrease threat than an Jap itinerary. The best threat of a tropical system’s direct affect is alongside the northern Leeward Islands, the northern half of the Larger Antilles and the Bahamas.
Additional, you probably have flexibility within the timing of your cruise, as proven in Desk 1, attempt to keep away from September which has the best frequency of storms in most port areas. Almost one third of all direct hits from tropical techniques on cruise ports happens in September alone. Western Gulf ports in addition to San Juan seem to have a decrease threat in October.
Lastly, it’s essential to place the above knowledge in context. Whereas the info and maps offered above could look ominous, the general chance of any given storm instantly impacting your cruise may be very low, simply 2 or 3%. Even throughout peak season when 3 or 4 storms could also be brewing on the identical time, odds from a direct hit are lower than 10%. So, with a little bit of planning, and odds in your favor, it’s attainable to take a wonderful cruise throughout hurricane season.
Graphics Credit score: Mark Morris
